HR Guide: H-1B lottery 2026 (FY2027): odds and employer strategy

Why this matters

The H-1B cap process keeps evolving. The CY2025 results (FY2026 season) offer useful signals for planning the next cycle. This guide translates the numbers into plain actions for HR leaders planning the H-1B lottery 2026 (FY2027).

Glossary

CY2025 = FY2026. USCIS runs on a fiscal year that starts on Oct 1. People selected in the March 2025 lottery start H-1B status on Oct 1, 2025 or later, which is FY2026. In this article, we use Current Year (CY) for clarity.

What Happened in FY2026

USCIS announced the following numbers for the CY2025 (FY2026) H-1B cap season:

• 343,981 eligible registrations submitted

• 336,153 unique beneficiaries

• 120,141 selected in the initial round

That means the selection rate this year was roughly 35% — a significant improvement over FY2025’s ~24% odds.

Why the jump?

Registrations dropped slightly compared to last year, and USCIS tightened controls on duplicate filings. The result: cleaner data and better chances for those who applied.

How This Fits into the Bigger Picture

Here’s how odds have looked in recent years:

• CY2023: ~780,000 registrations (inflated by duplicates), very low odds.

• CY2024: ~350,000 registrations, ~24% odds.

• CY2025: ~344,000 registrations, ~35% odds.

The takeaway is clear: the system is stabilizing, and chances of selection are improving compared to just a few years ago.

Looking Ahead: The DHS Proposal

DHS has proposed shifting the H-1B process from a purely random lottery to a weighted system based on prevailing wage levels. If implemented, the number of “entries” each registration gets would depend on its wage level:

• Level I: 1 entry

• Level II: 2 entries

• Level III: 3 entries

• Level IV: 4 entries

This change is designed to give higher-paid roles an advantage. It has raised concerns among F-1 students and early-career professionals who are often hired at Level I wages.

Using Math to Find Optimism

Let’s apply the math using this year’s registration volume (about 344K applicants). With 85,000 visas available, the weighted system would translate into the following approximate odds:

Wage Level	Entries Weight	Approx. Odds (if ~344K apply again)
Level I	1×	~17%
Level II	2×	~34%
Level III	3×	~51%
Level IV	4×	~68%

These are directional. If registrations decline further, chances rise for everyone.

Why This Matters for F-1s and Early-Career Applicants

• Your chances are still real. Even at Level I, odds are around 17% — not zero, and better than the odds many faced just two years ago.

• Employers are adjusting. Companies are already benchmarking salaries against prevailing wages. Many jobs that were once Level I may be reclassified at Level II, where odds jump to ~34%.

• If registrations decline further, odds go up for everyone. Fewer applicants means better chances across all wage levels.

This isn’t the system shutting doors. Think of it as the system reshaping.

Persistence still pays off.

Guidance for Employers: H-1B Lottery 2026 (FY2027)

Compensation planning

• Review OEWS wage data for roles you plan to sponsor in CY2026

• Target Level II or higher, where the job and market support it

Employee communications

• Reassure F-1 employees that there is a viable path

• Explain how wages and levels affect odds without promising outcomes

Operational steps

• Use our Employer Decision Framework to align risk, budget, and messaging

• Prepare drafts early so you can register quickly when the window opens

HR leaders planning for the H-1B lottery 2026 (FY2027) should start now: wage benchmarking, role scoping, and employee messaging will drive better outcomes.

👉 HR leaders can Decision Framework article here and download the full framework document here.

Key Takeaway

The CY2025 numbers show that H-1B odds are improving, not declining. While the DHS proposal could change the dynamics starting with the CY2026 cap season (to be run in March 2026), the math suggests meaningful chances remain — even for Level I roles — and employers have clear levers they can pull to improve outcomes.

For employees, especially those on F-1 visas, don’t lose hope.

For HR leaders, the task is to combine clarity for employees with strategic planning for leadership.

How Geography Shapes the Impact of H-1B Salaries

The DHS proposal ties lottery weighting to prevailing wage levels in the job’s location. That means the same dollar salary may place a worker at very different wage levels depending on the city:

• Smaller markets (e.g., St. Louis, Des Moines):

  A salary of $95,000 for a software engineer might qualify as Level II or even Level III, giving the employee 2–3 lottery entries.

• Medium markets (e.g., Dallas, Denver):

  That same $95,000 may only land at Level II, leaving the odds closer to baseline.

• High-cost metros (e.g., San Francisco, New York):

  $95,000 could be only Level I, giving the employee a single entry despite the high dollar amount.

What This Means for Employers

• Smaller and medium-sized city employers gain leverage. Their compensation dollars stretch further in the weighted lottery, making them more competitive against coastal giants.

• High-cost city employers face pressure. They will need to raise salaries well above already high prevailing wages to stay competitive.

• Employees in lower-cost regions may actually see better odds than peers in big cities with similar pay.

Key Takeaway

The new system is not a straight advantage for big cities. Employers in smaller or medium markets may have the upper hand in the 2026 H-1B process if they benchmark carefully against their local prevailing wage tables.

Next Steps for HR Leaders:

1. Share clear, reassuring communication with your foreign national employees.

2. Benchmark compensation against OEWS wage levels and flag Level I risks.

3. Prepare leadership for higher costs and adjusted odds in 2027.

4. Use the Employer Decision Framework to guide internal policy now and into the next cycle.